Do you believe that Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow was a false flag operation of Russian authorities?
112
resolved Mar 25
YES
NO

A year ago, on March 22nd 2024 a terrorist attack resulting in 145 deaths and 551 injured happened in the Crocus City Hall venue in Moscow, Russia. Do you believe that this was a false-flag operation directed in any way by the Russian authorities (for instance to justify more stringent security measures or an escalation in the war with Ukraine)?

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I resolved the related market based on the results of this poll:

/OlegEterevsky/a-year-from-now-will-manifold-users

See results.

I haven't looked all that deep into it, but it seems more like a regular terrorist attack that they merely blamed Ukraine for.

If it was a false flag against Ukraine there would have been planted "evidence" that Ukraine did it, and they wouldn't have been blatantly Muslim terrorists.

IMHO I would bet on it being incompetence and cockiness. IMHO at worst they let it through intentionally.

What about a situation where the authorities had prior knowledge, and either by incompetence or deliberate inaction allowed it to happen? Or would that be a separate issue entirely.

@fatekeep I'd say NO, unless it was very deliberate.

But ultimately, it’s a poll and not a market, so you can use your judgement :)

@fatekeep Like Oct 7th?

Needs unsure or percentage credence options

@TheAllMemeingEye You can vote for YES if you think thing that the probability >50%.

The poll result will be used to resolve this market, so it has to be simple.

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