Will there be aluminum production on the moon before 2063 ?
12
47
230
2063
44%
chance

Resolves yes if there are permanent aluminum producing factories on the moon before the close date.

Permanent means the factories are meant for continous operation and use mostly materials mined directly on the moon.

Use of imported fuel is acceptable, as well as limited use of catalysts or other marginal imported ingredients.

See also other related markets about factories on the moon

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:

Aluminum is one of the most abundant elements on earth and there is no point in mining it on the moon unless there is a permanent settlement on the moon. This should be less than or equal to the probability of a moon base.

predicts YES

@JonathanRay with infrastructure in space mining resourses will be more desirable and cheaper than mining on Earth.

predicts NO

@Berg Heavy metals on m-type asteroids are the only thing likely to be mined profitably in space for purposes of returning it to earth. Aluminum ore is ridiculously abundant on earth and the hard part is generating enough electricity to purify it, which will be cheaper on earth

predicts YES

@JonathanRay the hard part soon would be paying for all the mining externalities and damage to ecosystems, so I think you misjudging here

bought Ṁ15 of NO

@Berg Aluminum ore is so abundant all over earth that they can go jurisdiction shopping.

predicts YES

@JonathanRay mining harms enviroment and people in every jurisdiction, except space.

predicts NO

@Berg Size of the externalities varies with population density and space is just one end of that spectrum, temporarily