According to the Economic Policy Institute, the US union membership rate was 9.9 percent in 2024, little changed from the prior year. This market will resolve based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' annual Union Members Summary report for 2025, typically released in January 2026.
Resolution source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/union2.nr0.htm
Update 2026-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated they are more inclined to resolve NO based on the BLS report showing 10.0%, since the market description referenced the previous report's one decimal point format.
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@Odoacre - this can now resolve NO. BLS have published the 2025 data. Union membership was not above 10%. "The union membership rate--the percent of wage and salary workers who were members of unions --was 10.0 percent in 2025, little changed from the prior year, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today." - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/union2.nr0.htm
@SacredChicken interesting.
I wonder if it's worth doing the number and getting more decimals. Depending on how the number is calculated it could well be above 10.0.
On the other hand the description did refer to the previous report, including the one decimal point format. So I'm more inclined to resolve no
@Odoacre Fortunately in this case, it you use the figures in Table 1 to calculate the membership rate out to several decimals, it works out very slightly below 10% i.e. 9.9992%. You're correct that this could have been ambiguous though, so if you run another market like this for 2026, I'd suggest clarifying whether the headline BLS figure is what counts. I'd be inclined to use the rounded figure, because BLS is the resolution source and they've chosen to do so.
This was an interesting market, so thanks for running it.
Hi @Odoacre - the BLS union data is likely to be delayed into February due to the government shutdown in late 2025. I'm not sure if that influences your view on when this market should close.