Resolution criteria

The election will be held by 19 December 2026. The market resolves to whichever coalition holds a majority of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives following the election. The House normally consists of 120 members, though this may vary due to overhang seats. A majority requires more than half of all seats in Parliament at the time of government formation. Resolution will be determined by official Electoral Commission results and the composition of the government announced by the Governor-General.

Resolves to Which one forms any type of governing relationship together.

Background

Voters will elect 120 members to the House of Representatives under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, with 71 members elected from single-member electorates and 49 from closed party lists. The centre-right National Party, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, currently forms a coalition government with ACT and New Zealand First, while the centre-left Labour Party, led by Chris Hipkins, leads the opposition. Recent polling shows a highly competitive race: an August 2025 poll predicted a hung Parliament with both blocs tied at 61 seats, while an October 2025 poll projected the left bloc at 61 seats and the right bloc at 59.

Considerations

The 2026 election outcome remains unusually uncertain. Projections carry uncertainties due to factors like undecided voters, electorate swing, and potential overhang seats from Te Pāti Māori's strong Māori electorate performance. Additionally, Te Pāti Māori announced plans to run candidates in general seats at the 2026 election, which could affect seat distributions and coalition possibilities. The answers provided do not include all theoretically possible coalitions (e.g., Labour + Independents alone, or cross-bloc combinations), so outcomes not matching these specific combinations may require careful interpretation.