Resolution criteria

The 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with primary elections on August 11, 2026. The Republican nominee will be determined through Minnesota's traditional process where candidates are selected at a statewide convention through the endorsement of party delegates, rather than solely relying on primary results. Candidates must win over the party faithful at the GOP endorsing convention in spring, and some have indicated they will take the race to a primary in August if they don't get the endorsement. The market resolves to whichever candidate wins the Republican Party's official endorsement or, if no candidate receives the endorsement, whichever candidate wins the August 2026 Republican primary election.

Background

Kendall Qualls won the Minnesota Republican gubernatorial straw poll in December 2025 with 93 delegate votes, followed by Lisa Demuth with 90 and Mike Lindell with 49. The GOP primary field includes Scott Jensen, who lost to Gov. Tim Walz by 8 percentage points in 2022, and Kendall Qualls. Lisa Demuth is the first major contender to announce a 2026 running mate. Incumbent two-term Democratic Governor Tim Walz is running for election to a third term, which would be unprecedented in Minnesota since the adoption of four-year terms in 1962.

Considerations

A Republican has not won a statewide race in Minnesota since Gov. Tim Pawlenty's re-election in 2006. If Demuth were to triumph, she would become the first woman and first person of color to be governor in Minnesota. Both Kendall Qualls and Lisa Demuth are Black, which would be a first for Minnesota if either prevails in the Republican primary and general election.