Resolution criteria

The 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with primary elections on August 11, 2026. This market resolves YES if Tim Walz is the Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) Party's official nominee for governor following the primary election. Resolution will be determined by official results from the Minnesota Secretary of State's office at https://www.sos.state.mn.us/elections-voting/election-results/.

Background

Incumbent two-term Democratic Governor Tim Walz is running for election to a third term in office. Since the adoption of four-year terms in 1962, no Minnesota governor has been elected to a third term. Walz was re-elected to a second term four years ago, beating Jensen by more than 7 percentage points. Walz rose to national prominence last year as Harris' running mate in the presidential election, jumping into the campaign in August after then-President Joe Biden suspended his re-election bid in July.

Considerations

Walz will need to find a new running mate for next year's election, as Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is running to succeed retiring Democratic-Farmer-Labor Sen. Tina Smith. While Walz has announced his candidacy, potential Democratic primary challengers could emerge before the August 2026 primary.