Resolution Criteria

The election will take place on November 3, 2026. The market resolves YES if the Democratic nominee wins the general election for Minnesota governor. Resolution will be determined by official results from the Minnesota Secretary of State.

Background

Incumbent two-term Democratic Governor Tim Walz is running for election to a third term in office. Since the adoption of four-year terms in 1962, no Minnesota governor has been elected to a third term. Walz defeated his 2022 Republican opponent Scott Jensen by more than 7 percentage points, though Harris carried Minnesota with Walz on her ticket in the 2024 presidential election by a slimmer margin of just over 4 percentage points. Democrats have dominated every statewide office in Minnesota for nearly 20 years, and no Minnesota Republican has won a statewide race since Tim Pawlenty was reelected to a second term as governor in 2006.

Considerations

While the first midterm following a presidential election often benefits the party that doesn't control the White House, recent statewide polls show voters are split on both Walz's job performance and whether he should run for a third term. A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll finds voters evenly divided on Walz's performance with 47 percent approving and 47 percent disapproving, marking a steep drop from three months prior when his net approval stood at +19 points.