Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Labour formally rules out Te Pāti Māori as a coalition partner before the 2026 election (by December 19, 2026). It resolves NO if Labour does not make such a formal ruling, or if they explicitly keep the option open. Resolution will be based on official statements from Labour leadership or party policy documents.

Background

Te Pāti Māori won six electorate seats and 3.08% of the popular vote in the 2023 general election. Labour has expressed no concern if Te Pāti Māori is destroyed and out of Parliament after the 2026 election, with the party campaigning "vigorously" to win back the Māori seats. However, on current polling, Labour and the Greens would not be able to form a government without the involvement of Te Pāti Māori.

Te Pāti Māori is down two MPs after expelling Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and Tākuta Ferris, following several turbulent months that have split the party in two. Labour leader Chris Hipkins said he hasn't spoken to Te Pāti Māori since the byelection, stating "I want to lead a government that's inclusive, that's focused on the interests of all New Zealand, [and] some of the statements that we've seen from members in recent times does not reflect that" and "As of today, they've still got a long way to go before they could be considered for any kind of partnership and any governing arrangement."

Considerations

Te Pāti Māori co-leaders have confirmed they want a coalition with Labour and the Green Party. This is the first time Te Pāti Māori have shown they do want to govern beside Labour, while the legacy party has declined to return the sentiment. The question hinges on whether Labour will formally rule out the partnership or maintain strategic ambiguity heading into the election.