Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Labour makes an official public statement ruling out forming a coalition government with New Zealand First for the 2026 election. This includes statements from Labour leadership (party leader, deputy leader, or official party spokesperson) explicitly stating they will not work with NZ First in coalition negotiations after the election.

The market resolves NO if Labour does not make such a statement, or if Labour indicates openness to working with NZ First (including conditional openness or refusal to rule them out).

Resolution will be determined by statements made prior to the 2026 election, scheduled for no later than 19 December 2026.

Background

Labour previously formed a minority coalition government with New Zealand First in 2017, with confidence and supply from the Green Party. NZ First's deputy leader Shane Jones and newest recruit Stuart Nash were both Labour ministers, indicating historical alignment between the parties on some issues.

Currently, NZ First leader Winston Peters has ruled Chris Hipkins out "permanently", though this leaves open the option of working with a Labour Party led by someone else. When asked whether he was open to working with Labour after the election, Peters wouldn't answer, calling it "stupid," and has historically refused to make such calls.

Considerations

NZ First is the only coalition partner that has grown its support this term, flirting with 10% support in recent polling averages. NZ First is wedged to the right for now but could swing left once again, as it is not permanently committed to either bloc. This volatility makes NZ First a potentially valuable coalition partner for Labour if the election result is close, which may explain why Labour has not yet ruled them out.