Will Russia conduct a nuclear test during 2022?
68
αΉ6.9KαΉ228
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
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This market resolves yes if Russia conducts a live-fire nuclear explosion for non-combat purposes during 2022.
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Evan Harperpredicted YES
what about a zero-yield or "test stand level yield" explosion. or is there a ton TNT limit or something
Bpredicted NO
@EvanHarper The market specifies "a live-fire nuclear explosion," which implies that there actually has to be criticality. While it might appear as an earthquake on sensors, it would be distinguishable from the release of short-lived radioactive isotopes. (Also, earthquakes aren't usually localized to near the surface under test sites.)
Isaac Kingbought αΉ11 of NO
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