Will Russia conduct a nuclear test during 2022?
68
180
228
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO
This market resolves yes if Russia conducts a live-fire nuclear explosion for non-combat purposes during 2022.
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predicted YES

what about a zero-yield or "test stand level yield" explosion. or is there a ton TNT limit or something

predicted NO

@EvanHarper The market specifies "a live-fire nuclear explosion," which implies that there actually has to be criticality. While it might appear as an earthquake on sensors, it would be distinguishable from the release of short-lived radioactive isotopes. (Also, earthquakes aren't usually localized to near the surface under test sites.)

bought Ṁ100 of NO

The above market includes tests.

bought Ṁ11 of NO
Arbitrage against https://manifold.markets/Nostradamnedus/will-russia-use-wmds-in-2022. A nuclear bomb presumably counts as a WMD.