Will Russia conduct a nuclear test during 2022?
68
170
แน€228
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO
This market resolves yes if Russia conducts a live-fire nuclear explosion for non-combat purposes during 2022.
Get แน€1,000 play money

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€109
2แน€51
3แน€51
4แน€47
5แน€37
Sort by:
predicted YES

what about a zero-yield or "test stand level yield" explosion. or is there a ton TNT limit or something

predicted NO

@EvanHarper The market specifies "a live-fire nuclear explosion," which implies that there actually has to be criticality. While it might appear as an earthquake on sensors, it would be distinguishable from the release of short-lived radioactive isotopes. (Also, earthquakes aren't usually localized to near the surface under test sites.)

bought แน€100 of NO

The above market includes tests.

bought แน€11 of NO
Arbitrage against https://manifold.markets/Nostradamnedus/will-russia-use-wmds-in-2022. A nuclear bomb presumably counts as a WMD.