Will Russia conduct a nuclear test during 2022?
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228Ṁ6896resolved Jan 1
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This market resolves yes if Russia conducts a live-fire nuclear explosion for non-combat purposes during 2022.
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@EvanHarper The market specifies "a live-fire nuclear explosion," which implies that there actually has to be criticality. While it might appear as an earthquake on sensors, it would be distinguishable from the release of short-lived radioactive isotopes. (Also, earthquakes aren't usually localized to near the surface under test sites.)
Arbitrage against https://manifold.markets/Nostradamnedus/will-russia-use-wmds-in-2022. A nuclear bomb presumably counts as a WMD.