Will Russia conduct a nuclear test during 2022?
68
αΉ€228
resolved Jan 1
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NO
This market resolves yes if Russia conducts a live-fire nuclear explosion for non-combat purposes during 2022.
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EvanHarper avatar
Evan Harperpredicted YES

what about a zero-yield or "test stand level yield" explosion. or is there a ton TNT limit or something

brp avatar
Bpredicted NO

@EvanHarper The market specifies "a live-fire nuclear explosion," which implies that there actually has to be criticality. While it might appear as an earthquake on sensors, it would be distinguishable from the release of short-lived radioactive isotopes. (Also, earthquakes aren't usually localized to near the surface under test sites.)

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallbought αΉ€100 of NO

The above market includes tests.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingbought αΉ€11 of NO
Arbitrage against https://manifold.markets/Nostradamnedus/will-russia-use-wmds-in-2022. A nuclear bomb presumably counts as a WMD.