Will Russia use WMDs in 2022?
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There have been warnings of a false flag chemical attack by Russia in Ukraine by Western countries. This market resolves Yes if Russia uses nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons during 2022.
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This market would benefit a lot from explicit clarification of a few things: 1. 'Uses' according to who? If Ukraine makes statements that Russia is using chemical weapons against its troops, and Russia denies it, whose decision do we look to? 2. 'Uses' how? If Russia runs nuclear tests North-Korea style, nuking some uninhabited part of Siberia to try to look intimidating, does that count?
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It's already using them for deterrence and blackmail.
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Arbitrage against https://manifold.markets/Nostradamnedus/will-russia-conduct-a-nuclear-test. A nuclear bomb presumably counts as a WMD.
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Intelligence agencies warn about that sort of thing more or less constantly. I think under a conventional understanding of WMDs it's quite unlikely. But under the technical definition, the thermobaric weapons they've already deployed count.

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