
Will at least 10,000 people die in a military conflict in Sudan during 2023?
17
330Ṁ2922resolved Oct 22
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ219 | |
2 | Ṁ62 | |
3 | Ṁ21 | |
4 | Ṁ13 | |
5 | Ṁ5 |
People are also trading
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
47% chance
Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?
7% chance
Will the U.S. send troops to Sudan by 2026?
15% chance
Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043?
15% chance
Will more people die in wars in 2024 than in 2023?
65% chance
Will at least 800 million people die worldwide between 2024 and 2030?
9% chance
Continuing from Scenerio #3: Which of the will the Sudan's war spillover after South Sudan in 2027?
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?
25% chance
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?
35% chance
Sort by:
@Nostradamnedus ACLED is reporting 10,139 fatalities since Jan 1, as of Oct 13:
ACLED might be a good source for resolving the question. Not always perfect as they rely on verifiable information, but better than news reports repeating potentially biased statements from involved parties
@CodeandSolder this article also claims 10k in past two months, but wikipedia puts that number at 10,000 according to the Sudanese gov't and 300,000 according to the UN, both since the beginning of the conflict in the early 2000s. unclear if the article is missing info or getting timelines messed up
People are also trading
Related questions
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
47% chance
Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?
7% chance
Will the U.S. send troops to Sudan by 2026?
15% chance
Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043?
15% chance
Will more people die in wars in 2024 than in 2023?
65% chance
Will at least 800 million people die worldwide between 2024 and 2030?
9% chance
Continuing from Scenerio #3: Which of the will the Sudan's war spillover after South Sudan in 2027?
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?
25% chance
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?
35% chance