Will at least 10,000 people die in a military conflict in Sudan during 2023?
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resolved Oct 22
Resolved
YES

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Betting yes on this market never feels good.

predictedYES

Would children who die of malnutrition as a result of displacement be included?

@JCE A famine directly caused by the conflict would count, yes

ACLED might be a good source for resolving the question. Not always perfect as they rely on verifiable information, but better than news reports repeating potentially biased statements from involved parties

https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard

Should probably wait for confirmation from other sources. Claim isn't exactly coming from a disinterested party.

predictedYES

@jskf ouch, yeah, should have read past the headline, it's late lol

@CodeandSolder this article also claims 10k in past two months, but wikipedia puts that number at 10,000 according to the Sudanese gov't and 300,000 according to the UN, both since the beginning of the conflict in the early 2000s. unclear if the article is missing info or getting timelines messed up

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