Will a market generating bot be launched in Manifold by the end of 2022?
12
120
แน€340
resolved Dec 31
Resolved
YES

A bot that automatically creates new markets.

Get แน€1,000 play money

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bought แน€200 of YES

This is already the case: the 538 bot and the Metaculus bot, and I think @LivInTheLookingGlass has finished hers.

bought แน€10 of YES

Arguably I am already trying to do that with my scanner goal. At the very least Manifold PRs would automatically gain a market

@LivInTheLookingGlass Interesting, how does it work?

predicted YES

@Nostradamnedus Well, I already have a bot that can deploy and resolve markets. One example is that it has a market template for a pull request being merged. If it's merged, it resolves to the number of days that took, otherwise it resolves to MAX. Examples:

The next step is to have it scan the Manifold GitHub repo for pull requests and make these automatically. I currently have 3 blockers:

  • Need to write the scanner (simple, just takes time)

  • Need to find some way to automatically set groups

  • Need to reorganize some database code so that these scanners can record information

I think I'd be surprised if I don't have that done by end of year, but it'll depend on how many other tasks I take on

Will a market generating bot be launched in Manifold by the end of 2022?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition