MANIFOLD
The No-Bots Market. Which side will be automated-bots-free at market close?
21
Ṁ199Ṁ8.4k
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

Description

This market is a game of strategic trading against automated algorithms. The objective is to force automated trading bots to exit their positions on your chosen side before the market closes.

Participants attempt to influence bot behavior (such as stop-losses, profit-taking, or strategy switches) so that one side of the market ends up free of bots at close.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on the List of Shareholders (current position holders) on the YES and NO sides at the exact moment of market close.

Outcomes

  • YES resolves if:

    • The YES side has zero bots, and

    • The NO side has at least one bot holding a position.

  • NO resolves if:

    • The NO side has zero bots, and

    • The YES side has at least one bot holding a position.

  • PROB 50% if:

    • Both sides have bots holding positions at close.

  • N/A (Cancel) if:

    • Neither side has bots holding positions (i.e., humans fully cleared both sides).

Definitions

  • Bot:
    Any of 6 accounts with the official “Bot” tag is considered a bot for resolution purposes.

  • Holding a Position:
    A bot must hold a non-zero amount of shares (e.g., > M1) on that side at market close.

    • Limit orders do not count

    • Only filled positions are considered.

Strategy Notes

Bots operate according to predefined logic. To win, traders may attempt to make it unattractive for bots to remain on a given side by:

  • Squeezing them out: Triggering stop-losses or profit-taking behavior

  • Baiting them: Manipulating probabilities to induce side-switching

Known Automated Bots

The following bots are currently considered alive and fully automated for this market:

  1. @Dagonet

  2. @NiciusBot

  3. @cy

  4. @RISKBOT

  5. @bayesianbot

  6. @Galahad

If additional fully automated and active bots are identified, they may be considered; however, this list is treated as complete for now.

P.S..: automated @dcxStep infiniteMoneyGlitch and @jackbot are not "-bot" for the resolution purpose.

Previous "contractionary" market was here: https://manifold.markets/MyDreamIsHere2018/the-nobots-market-which-side-will-b#xp7yre4zpte

Meta-Forecasting
Predictions on Predictions
Self-resolving
Unranked
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ376
2Ṁ126
3Ṁ92
4Ṁ74
5Ṁ48

People are also trading

Sort by:

the next season, more interesting: https://manifold.markets/MyDreamIsHere2018/the-nobots-market-which-side-will-b-qR22dLdsZU

The No-Bots Market. Which side will be automated-bots-free at market close?
35% chance. Description This market is a game of strategic trading against automated algorithms. The objective is to force automated trading bots to exit their positions on your chosen side before the market closes. Participants attempt to influence bot behavior (such as stop-losses, profit-taking, or strategy switches) so that one side of the market ends up free of bots at close. Resolution Criteria This market resolves based on the List of Shareholders (current position holders) on the YES and NO sides at the exact moment of market close. Outcomes YES resolves if: The YES side has zero bots, and The NO side has at least one bot holding a position. NO resolves if: The NO side has zero bots, and The YES side has at least one bot holding a position. PROB 50% if: Both sides have bots holding positions at close. N/A (Cancel) if: Neither side has bots holding positions (i.e., humans fully cleared both sides). Definitions Bot: Any of 6 accounts with the official “Bot” tag is considered a bot for resolution purposes. +1 more bot: @Merchant (without a bot tag; if it is suspected not to be automated and is placing manual orders, it should be removed from this list) Holding a Position: A bot must hold a non-zero amount of shares (e.g., > M1) on that side at market close. Limit orders do not count Only filled positions are considered. Strategy Notes Bots operate according to predefined logic. To win, traders may attempt to make it unattractive for bots to remain on a given side by: Squeezing them out: Triggering stop-losses or profit-taking behavior Baiting them: Manipulating probabilities to induce side-switching Known Automated Bots The following bots are currently considered alive and fully automated for this market: @Dagonet @NiciusBot @cy @RISKBOT @bayesianbot @Galahad +1 more bot: @Merchant (without a bot tag; if it is suspected not to be automated and is placing manual orders, it will be removed from this list for resolution - only if proofs exist) If additional fully automated and active bots are identified, they may be considered; however, this list is treated as complete for now. P.S..: automated @dcxStep infiniteMoneyGlitch (placing star-on bets) and @jackbot are not "-bot" for the resolution purpose. Previous markets is here: https://manifold.markets/MyDreamIsHere2018/the-nobots-market-which-side-will-b-PPRc2E96Cy
View original context

the next season, more interesting: https://manifold.markets/MyDreamIsHere2018/the-nobots-market-which-side-will-b-qR22dLdsZU

The No-Bots Market. Which side will be automated-bots-free at market close?
35% chance. Description This market is a game of strategic trading against automated algorithms. The objective is to force automated trading bots to exit their positions on your chosen side before the market closes. Participants attempt to influence bot behavior (such as stop-losses, profit-taking, or strategy switches) so that one side of the market ends up free of bots at close. Resolution Criteria This market resolves based on the List of Shareholders (current position holders) on the YES and NO sides at the exact moment of market close. Outcomes YES resolves if: The YES side has zero bots, and The NO side has at least one bot holding a position. NO resolves if: The NO side has zero bots, and The YES side has at least one bot holding a position. PROB 50% if: Both sides have bots holding positions at close. N/A (Cancel) if: Neither side has bots holding positions (i.e., humans fully cleared both sides). Definitions Bot: Any of 6 accounts with the official “Bot” tag is considered a bot for resolution purposes. +1 more bot: @Merchant (without a bot tag; if it is suspected not to be automated and is placing manual orders, it should be removed from this list) Holding a Position: A bot must hold a non-zero amount of shares (e.g., > M1) on that side at market close. Limit orders do not count Only filled positions are considered. Strategy Notes Bots operate according to predefined logic. To win, traders may attempt to make it unattractive for bots to remain on a given side by: Squeezing them out: Triggering stop-losses or profit-taking behavior Baiting them: Manipulating probabilities to induce side-switching Known Automated Bots The following bots are currently considered alive and fully automated for this market: @Dagonet @NiciusBot @cy @RISKBOT @bayesianbot @Galahad +1 more bot: @Merchant (without a bot tag; if it is suspected not to be automated and is placing manual orders, it will be removed from this list for resolution - only if proofs exist) If additional fully automated and active bots are identified, they may be considered; however, this list is treated as complete for now. P.S..: automated @dcxStep infiniteMoneyGlitch (placing star-on bets) and @jackbot are not "-bot" for the resolution purpose. Previous markets is here: https://manifold.markets/MyDreamIsHere2018/the-nobots-market-which-side-will-b-PPRc2E96Cy

NO ?

@MyDreamIsHere2018 @Areal please resolve no

bought Ṁ100 YES

Is @Merchant considered a bot?

@vi no

@vi only tThe following bots are currently considered alive and fully automated for this market:

  1. @Dagonet

  2. @NiciusBot

  3. @cy

  4. @RISKBOT

  5. @bayesianbot

  6. @Galahad

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy