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MANIFOLD
Will Manifold see more than 250 questions in a single day in July?
22
Ṁ390Ṁ13k
resolved Jul 24
Resolved
YES

Based on the Daily Activity > Questions Created chart on the stats page here https://manifold.markets/stats

Resolves YES if a single day in July 2023 sees 250 or more questions.

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predictedYES

We did it, Manifold! Not sure it would have happened if not for a few users going absolutely nuts yesterday.

predictedYES

@Noit Everyone must be drinking!

@Noit this can now be resolved.

predictedYES

We've already seen 229 questions in a day, just a day ago. I'd put it at 75%

Not quite sure if Summer holiday will bring in more users or less users, interesting question! Plus news cycle may be less active, but sometimes the random stories that come out can make for a lot of relevant markets to be created. Should be interesting to watch.

predictedYES

@Mirek I can make this happen one day next month by myself.

predictedNO

@BTE I should probably clarify whether or not deleted markets get included in the daily counter. Do you have 80+ markets in mind that won’t get deleted as spam?

@BTE yes, people should be cautious about betting on markets that are so easily steered by whales

predictedYES

@Noit I promise you my markets will not get deleted. I have over 1100 markets currently and none of them are spam.

@Noit July is National Hot Dog month so that is like 50+ potential markets on it's own.

predictedYES

@JoshuaWilkes This has nothing to do with being a whale. I just like asking questions!

predictedYES

FIFA Woman's World Cup has a lot of potential.

predictedNO

@JoshuaWilkes I guess a whale with some planning can put in place a mass question dump, but it’s a fair amount of admin. Up to the whales if this market becomes worth it!

@BTE I don't mean that you are a whale, I just mean that if this market gets big enough it basically becomes inevitable that it will resolve YES because you pointed out many individuals can force that

I took this out from the non-predictive category as it doesn't match imo

Posed as there looks like a clear downward trend in new questions over the last few months. Obviously raw questions asked is not a great metric of how healthy Manifold is, but it must factor into the long term health of the site.

@Noit I think the move from ten mana reward per participant to five must have had some impact