Will any UK cabinet member leave cabinet in April?
Will any UK cabinet member leave cabinet in April?
24
440Ṁ5217resolved May 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Cabinet members as per https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers
Resolves YES if any member of cabinet resigns, is fired, dies, or otherwise ceases to hold a position in cabinet before market close.
Being promoted to another cabinet position does not count as leaving.
Losing one cabinet role when multiple are held (and thus remaining in cabinet) does not count as leaving.
All cabinet members being replaced simultaneously e.g. at a general election will resolve YES.
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Brief moment of panic, but Graham Stuart is not / was not a cabinet minister before today. Might raise the odds of another reshuffle though.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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