Conditional on Peter Bone losing a recall petition, which party will win the subsequent by-election in the Wellingborough constituency?
Resolves N/A if there is no recall petition, or if the recall petition does not lead to a by-election. Otherwise resolves to the party which takes the most votes and so fields an MP to parliament.
1,000
3.00Going big now that the Conservatives have managed to select Peter Bone’s girlfriend to run as their candidate. Might as well give Gen Kitchen the seat now.
Bone is apparently standing again as a candidate for Reform. Hard to see how this does anything but guarantee a Labour win.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/reform-peter-bone-upset-wellingborough-by-election-2820035
Relevant points from today’s Politico Playbook:
If the Conservatives (who control the timing) decide to go as early as possible, the by-election could be on February 8
and
Polling guru John Curtice tells Playbook it is both an uphill battle for Labour … and they might expect to win it. He says the 18 percent swing needed is more than shown in current polling — but would reflect recent by-election results and continue to establish a pattern of a “vulnerable” government. If, on the other hand, the Conservatives hold it with a swing of 10 percent to Labour, “they would be doing very well,”