What year will the next Star Trek movie be released?
Basic
10
837
2025
0.5%
2024
6%
2025
34%
2026
41%
2027
20%
2028

The last Star Trek movie, Star Trek Beyond, was released in 2016. Since then there have been multiple attempts to get another one into production. When will that hit screens?

A Star Trek film must meet these criteria:

  • Released in cinemas in the USA and UK.

  • Runtime longer than 80 minutes.

  • Title includes the phrase “Star Trek”.

Each answer resolves YES if they are the first year to have a film that meets those criteria after Star Trek Beyond (2016). They resolve NO if no Star Trek film is released in that year, or if the next film is released in an earlier year.

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Noitopened aṀ20 2027 YES at 40% order

What if it has a small theatrical release in addition to the streaming release?

@asmith I specifically want to exclude streaming releases where there might be a few cinema “watch party” style events. So I would say that I would expect a cinematic release to be in 1000+ cinemas daily for at least two weeks.

bought Ṁ10 2028 NO

Am I interpreting "They resolve NO if no Star Trek film is released in that year, or if the next film is released in an earlier year" correctly as meaning that only one option can resolve YES?

@ML12d1 Correct. When one answer resolves YES then any other open answers resolve NO.

sold Ṁ0 2028 NO

@Noit Thanks! The reason I was asking is that the total probability regularly adds up to above 100% – recently 111% – which means at least one option is overvalued.

@ML12d1 Wait, I guess it was even 130%.

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