Will the polling gap between Labour and Conservative parties change in the six weeks following the budget?

UK politics•UK General Election 2024•UK•Elections•Elections: World

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resolved Apr 18

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50%50%

3) No Significant Change: ΔGap% is between -2% and +2%

50%42%

4) Moderate Widening: ΔGap% is between +2% and +5%

0.7%

1) Significant Narrowing: ΔGap% is less than -5%

2) Moderate Narrowing: ΔGap% is between -2% and -5%

0.6%

5) Significant Widening: ΔGap% is more than +5%

The aim of this market is to forecast if, and how, the polling gap between the Labour and Conservative parties shifts as we approach the 2024 UK General Election. Using data from Politico UK’s Poll of Polls, we’re starting with a gap of 20% - Labour at 44%, Conservatives at 24% as of 6th March.

How It Works:

• Baseline: The initial gap is 20%.

• Resolution Date: The market resolves six weeks after the spring budget statement.

• Data Source: Politico UK Poll of Polls - National parliament voting intention (smooth lines)

• Calculation: We’ll compare the gap one week before the election to our baseline. The change in percentage points (ΔGap%) will determine the resolution.

Examples:

• If Labour polls at 50% and Conservatives at 20%, the gap is 30%. That’s a 10% increase, resolving as “Significant Widening”.

• If Labour polls at 35% and Conservatives at 30%, the gap is 5%. That’s a 15% decrease, resolving as “Significant Narrowing”.

Errata:

This market depends on the Politico Poll of Polls, if that ceases to exist for whatever reason then this market will resolve N/A.
This market resolves based on the most recent polling data six weeks after the spring budget statement. The polling data may be from further back but this will be the data that is taken for resolution.

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Poll of polls has LAB 44 and CON 22, making our ΔGap% +2%.

Because we have to categories with 2% on the boundary I’m going to resolve this 50% No Significant Change and 50% Moderate Widening.

opened a Ṁ100 3) No Significant Ch... YES at 50% order

Under two weeks to go, current gap is 21%: +1%.

Today is budget day, and as at this moment Politico’s Poll of Polls lists Labour at 44% and Conservatives at 24%, so that is now our benchmark to compare against at point of closure.