Nicola Willis is the Deputy Leader of the National Party, New Zealand’s Minister of Finance, and ranked #2 on Nationals Party List.
Will she return to parliament after the 2026 election?
She’s running as a list only candidate.
Resolves YES if she makes it in off the list.
Resolves NO if she does not make it in off the list.
Resolves based on election results, if another mp resigns to let her reeenter parliament, it will not effect the resolution.
This market will n/a if Nicola Willis withdraws from the election.
1,000Market was about 46% when I bet; I've got it around 2%. National won 42 electorate seats but its ~29% party vote only entitles it to about 36, so it gets no list seats at all, and specials usually cut National further. Willis conceded tonight that a return is very unlikely. https://newsroom.co.nz/2026/11/07/election-night-2026-live-updates/