Conditional on Labour winning the next UK Election, will they recover £1B of fraudulent COVID loans?
Conditional on Labour winning the next UK Election, will they recover £1B of fraudulent COVID loans?
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The Labour Party have announced that they will set up a COVID Corruption Commission with the aim of recovering up to £7 billion in fraudulent COVID loans. Will they successfully recover even 1/7th of that? https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/08/covid-corruption-commissioner-recoup-lost-billions-labour
Resolves YES if UK.GOV spokespeople confirm that they have successfully recovered one billion pounds or more by market close.
Resolves N/A if Labour do not win the next general election.
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opened a Ṁ50 NO at 35% order9mo
Investigation announced into £600M of contracts. So unless they're going to under-promise and over-deliver, things aren't looking so bright for YES.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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