Will someone disrupt the global semiconductor supply chain by disrupting high-purity quartz mines by EOY 2028?

1kṀ1437

2029

11%

chance

ALL

This will resolve YES if by the end of 2028, someone causes a significant disruption in the global semiconductor supply chain by the disruption of high-purity quartz mines. If an attack happens close to the resolution date, trading will be extended to see the effects.

Economics

Technology

Semiconductors

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

32% chance

[Metaculus] Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

61% chance

Will we mine material in space to be sold on earth by 2026?

4% chance

Will there be CPUs manufactured on diamond wafers by 2100?

51% chance

In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?

2035

Major semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to Tier-1 AI country fails delivery by end of 2026

52% chance

Will the US be able to prop up its domestic semiconductor industry in a way that rivals China's -- not including Taiwan -- in the next five years?

75% chance

Will a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2026?

22% chance

Will a US semiconductor fab begin volume production of 3nm chips in 2024?

11% chance

Will a magnonics-based computing device (SSD, CPU, RAM) be available to be purchased online by EOY 2028?

Sort by:

I don't think that text is very realistic. The US isn't the only place with a high-purity quartz mine, and it is very difficult to contaminate them even if you have a crop duster with that specific powder. This is a very strong hypothetical.

bought Ṁ45 NO

To be clear, you don't mean "disrupt" in the silicon-valley sense (i.e. make a splash in the industry). You mean like, physically intervene in the mining process. Right?