Will I think that anyone looked at someone's reciprocity.io matches without their consent via access to the backend by 2030?
15
141
510
2030
8%
chance

https://www.reciprocity.io/
Resolves Jan 1, 2030

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:

@agentydragon @_Chelos_

Do you have any direct information you'd like to share (it's fine if you don't) or just think the market should be more uncertain?

predicts YES

@NoaNabeshima not me. i just have higher prior on "will a given service have an incident like this in the next 7 years".

predicts YES

(I'm assuming this market isn't just narrowly "will it be [any founder/team member/...] doing it by [specific method/vulnerability]", but that something like "someone exploited an outdated mongo instance and dumped it into a torrent" would also qualify)

@agentydragon Yes, that's correct

@agentydragon that would count

@KatjaGrace Is it fair to interpret this as you strongly believing that noone will look at reciprocity matches without consent?

predicts NO

@NoaNabeshima Yeah, I’m especially confident that the original founders wouldn’t because I was one of them, I’d be shocked if Buck did, and pretty surprised if he gave it to someone else who did

@KatjaGrace that's great, thanks Katja

er informative and reassuring*

predicts NO

@NoaNabeshima Curious if you made this because there's some reason to think someone would that I don't know about, or just because it seems like a nice way to be reassured that it's safe to use?

@KatjaGrace I made it because it seemed like a nice way to be reassured that it's safe to use