Will someone I know be targeted by a generative AI based scam by EoY 2026?
13
100
1k
2027
71%
chance

Resolves YES if there is an attempt made to scam someone that I personally know, by a technique made possible by generative AI by EoY 2026, and I learn about it.

The scam attempt can use voice generation, video generation, or any similar form of analog AI based generation. The scammer must attempt to extort something (money/resources/info). The attempt need not be successful.

The scam must target this individual specifically, by eg. faking voice of a friend, as opposed to eg. a mass circulated deepfake with a famous personality requesting money be sent to a bitcoin wallet.

I'll only resolve positively if the target is someone I know in a personal capacity (friends/family/colleagues/etc).

Resolves NO if I learn of no such scam by EoY 2026.

There may be some subjective calls in the resolution of this market so I will not bet.

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Will you be surveying your friends and family? Or do they have to come to you unprompted with the information?

Additionally, do they need proof of the event having happened? Or will their word be enough?

@Quroe I'm hesitant to say it needs to be "unprompted", since I may be the one to bring up the topic in natural conversation, and that would technically be prompted by me. But I don't plan to systematically survey people for the purpose of resolving this market.

I can't think of reasons why their word wouldn't be enough for most of the people I know. Let's just say I'll use my judgement on that, and I'll resolve positively if I'm 98%+ sure that it actually happened.

Thanks for your questions.

bought Ṁ30 YES from 59% to 71%
bought Ṁ30 YES

@galaga I appreciate the answer. Sampling methods matter. 😊

Note: I aim to resolve positively as soon as I hear about such an event.

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