Resolves YES if there is an attempt made to scam someone that I personally know, by a technique made possible by generative AI by EoY 2026, and I learn about it.
The scam attempt can use voice generation, video generation, or any similar form of analog AI based generation. The scammer must attempt to extort something (money/resources/info). The attempt need not be successful.
The scam must target this individual specifically, by eg. faking voice of a friend, as opposed to eg. a mass circulated deepfake with a famous personality requesting money be sent to a bitcoin wallet.
I'll only resolve positively if the target is someone I know in a personal capacity (friends/family/colleagues/etc).
Resolves NO if I learn of no such scam by EoY 2026.
There may be some subjective calls in the resolution of this market so I will not bet.
See also:
Related questions
@Quroe I'm hesitant to say it needs to be "unprompted", since I may be the one to bring up the topic in natural conversation, and that would technically be prompted by me. But I don't plan to systematically survey people for the purpose of resolving this market.
I can't think of reasons why their word wouldn't be enough for most of the people I know. Let's just say I'll use my judgement on that, and I'll resolve positively if I'm 98%+ sure that it actually happened.
Thanks for your questions.