Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
What will Rob Long's credence be that there exists a conscious AI system at end of 2024?
9
Ṁ210Ṁ351
Jan 1
19%
chance

What will Rob Long's credence be that there exists a phenomenally conscious AI system by end of 2024?

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

selling off, but not because my credence has gone up - just want to be not betting on this market and, ideally, forget about it for a while. so there’s no interference with said credence :)

People are also trading

Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?
37% chance
Will a company lose ownership of an AI due to credible claims of the AI's possible sentience by the end of 2026?
5% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2025? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
35% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
58% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
43% chance
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
54% chance
Will a company lose ownership of an AI due to credible claims of the AI's possible sentience by the end of 2034?
13% chance
Will an AI exec equate AGI to religious end-times in 2026?
28% chance
When will I believe an AI is conscious with >66% credence?
2030
By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?
34% chance