A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all
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Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)
78% chance
Will AI create the first AGI?
41% chance
Will humans create AGI, either directly or indirectly, within the next 24 months?
16% chance
Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?
In what year will human-level AI first exist?
2038
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Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)
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Will AI create the first AGI?
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Will humans create AGI, either directly or indirectly, within the next 24 months?
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Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?
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In what year will human-level AI first exist?
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