Will an AI model be used for operational weather forecasts by the end of 2024?
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2025
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AI models can match traditional weather forecast systems at a fraction of the compute. See e.g.,

https://www.science.org/content/article/ai-churns-out-lightning-fast-forecasts-good-weather-agencies

and this excellent overview by Stephan Rasp:

https://youtu.be/XSULa3xGORU

But to date these systems are experimental and none is being used operationally- I.e. to make continuously updating ensemble forecasts based on newly ingested data.

Question will resolve yes if an AI model is used operationally by a group outside a traditional meteorological center.

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Do "traditional forecast systems" not already count as AI? I would assume they already use it.

Define AI model. This Instructables project from 2017 shows the process of building a rain prediction setup that takes in measurements and outputs probability of rain with machine learning. This paper from 2019 demonstrates a CNN model that can do ensemble forecasts. It seems that the authors of that paper would already satisfy "if an AI model is used operationally by a group outside a traditional meteorological center" if they had run their model on live weather data at any point. If I were to quickly make a ML model that takes in live weather data from an API then predict possible future states, even if it's often inaccurate, would that count?

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