Background Currently, AI systems can simulate and recognize emotions through algorithms and affective computing, but they lack the biological and psychological mechanisms necessary for genuinely experiencing emotions. Emotions in humans are tied to complex physiological and psychological responses, including sensory experiences and consciousness, which AI systems do not possess.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if there is scientific consensus (defined as agreement among >80% of published papers in peer-reviewed journals) that AI systems have developed the capability to genuinely experience emotions, rather than just simulate them. The market will resolve NO if by 2050:

• No such consensus exists

• There is scientific consensus that AI cannot feel emotions

• The question remains unresolved or debated

Evidence must go beyond behavioral mimicry or pattern recognition to demonstrate actual emotional experience comparable to biological entities.

Considerations

• This is a complex question that intersects with debates about consciousness, qualia, and the nature of emotional experience

• Current expert consensus holds that AI systems do not truly feel emotions

• Verification of genuine emotional experience in AI systems would likely require significant advances in our understanding of consciousness and emotion

• The development of emotion-capable AI would raise major ethical considerations about machine rights and moral status

• Resolution may be complicated by philosophical debates about what constitutes "real" emotions versus sophisticated simulation