Will there be a Fortune 500 company with 10 employees or fewer?
Basic
22
808
2028
23%
Yes, before 2029
·
7mo
16%
Yes, before 2034
·
7mo
6%
Yes, before 2050
·
7mo
52%
No, never (or after 2050)
·
7mo
3%
Other
·
7mo

Provided AI will take most of our jobs, when is a probable time for super small companies to be part of the Fortune 500 list? Fortune 500 is a list of the largest companies in the USA based on revenue.

Clarification #1

If this bet turns out to be correct AI has not taken all our jobs but most of them. When this bet is resolved “only” one company on the Fortune 500 list have a majority of AI employees, thus making Fortune still relevant

Clarification #2

When I resolve this bet, only ONE option will be correct. So if it happens on 2032 the the option “Before 2034” will be correct and the remaining ones will be wrong.

Clarification #3

The total number of human employees at that company should be lower than 10.

Subsidiaries/3rd party does not count.

Fully owned subsidiaries would be considered to be part of the company. Like Meta and Facebook, and Alphabet and Google would be considered as one company. Let’s put the threshold at 75% ownership, anything below is allowed respectively.

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@NilsSkold1449 Should this remain open for trading? It seems like it would be more interesting if we could keep trading until we know the answer.

@EvanDaniel Of course, its Norre efter to january 2028

If AI has taken all our jobs, why does Fortune continue to exist much less compile and publish the Fortune 500 list? This is like when I was 5 and imagined what the biggest headlines in the world would be. I came up with JESUS RETURNS. Big news indeed but why would the newspaper continue to publish.

ETA I was assuming all "our" jobs means all humans. Not "all Manifold users" or "all reading this thread."

@ClubmasterTransparent In this scenario, AI has not taken all our jobs but most of them. When this bet is resolved “only” one company on the Fortune 500 list have a majority of AI employees, thus making Fortune still relevant.

@NilsSkold1449 Would you consider making that clear in the description? I'm not the only one who can be literal-minded.

This Market must be inefficient, how can there be less a chance for before 2050 than before 2029. Before 2029 is before 2050!

@MalteKretzschmar My intention when writing the options was that if it happens before 2029 then all the other options are false, and so on. I’m guessing from your comment that wasn’t clear.

At least four significant challenges to this happening:

  • sufficiently good AGI

  • at a sufficiently low cost

  • with enough of a moat against AI-based competitors (what would that be? not just intelligence, by construction)

  • without attracting so much (rational or irrational) political ire that it gets destroyed

10 "human" employees?

What if they're delegating all their work to larger subsidiaries/3rd party?

@tomzx The total number of human employees at that company. Subsidiaries/3rd party does not count.

Fully owned subsidiaries would be considered to be part of the company. Like Meta and Facebook, and Alphabet and Google would be considered as one company. Let’s put the threshold at 75% ownership, anything below is allowed respectively.

Today, if you delegate all your work you would not have the revenue to join the top 500. I suspect that to be true in the future too. For this to work there would have to be a lot of AI/robot “employees” at said company.