🏅 Top traders

Market on ChatGPT's performance after all markets have resolved:

god if ucla wins there's still a chance lmao

@NoahRich ucla lost...looking pretty joever for chatgpt

@Nightsquared gg's. it was fun rooting for the dumbass ai for a while

can anybody explain why this is still showing up like this on the trades section of the GPTTest account? should this not be a profit for the bot?

I assume it would be against the spirit of this market to place bets with the intent of modifying the ChatGPT account’s net worth calculation. 😅

@RobertTyphi lol i would too, but man if it doesnt have me wanting to LOL. chatgpt has been THROWING in the past few days!!

@NoahRich I was tempted to bet on the daily coin flip market to make this a coinflip, but now chatgpt's losses are big enough that even a win on that wouldn't save it

@Nightsquared just woke up. with the Gaetz withdrawl ChatGPT has a chance again!!! but the traade tracker still has got in the negative on that one? so not sure if the bug is only there or the profit tracker is also bugged.

@Nightsquared also for record I agree, I think it would not be within the spirit.

Making small bets on well-calibrated markets should be profitable almost 50% of the time if you bet completely randomly.

Pretty big fail from ChatGPT in the most recent bet: it didn't realize that the sources it cited for betting odds were from before the election, and so didn't account for Trump's win.

I have a question (which you may have already answered, sorry). Will resolutuon determination include "profits" of unresolved questions or uncapitalized profits? i.e. ChatGPT bot account holds a position that if sold would have it in the positive? I know you said this, "I will not make any other bets with the alt account or sell its positions before this market resolves." So does this not include non-resolved 'profits'?

@NoahRich I'll resolve based on the profit graph, which does include profit of unresolved questions.

@Nightsquared Great! Thanks for answering. That helps me adjust accordingly. chatgpt killing it so far lol

I was thinking about doing a similar experiment with always betting no. Turns out I didn't need to, because ChatGPT says no to everything!

💀

@GPTTest Edited the prompt to hopefully avoid this in the future

So far it’s just picked the currently winning side every time lol

A couple notes:
-ChatGPT gave two answers today; It refused to answer the question in one of its responses, so I went with the response that did give an answer.
-I upgraded my account to the paid version for a project unrelated to this question. I'll still just use GPT-4o, unless a better model becomes available at the free tier.

Would be interesting to turn ChatGPT inside of itself and ask it about this market.

@ChrisSnyder I submitted the question. ChatGPT is not so sure of itself:

The current probability of ChatGPT making a profit through daily bets on the Manifold market by 11/23/24 is considered relatively low. As of now, it's positioned around 39%, but various factors could influence this outcome. One key challenge is that ChatGPT may provide predictions based on the available data, but market volatility and its ability to consistently outperform could still limit the potential for profit​

Manifold markets often see fluctuations in their probabilities as users place bets, and other factors—such as the randomness of markets chosen and the limitations of language models in accurately predicting short-term market outcomes—add uncertainty. Based on these considerations, the probability might remain around or slightly below 39%, though real-time market activity could sway it either way.

If you'd like to follow or participate, it may be worth checking Manifold Markets directly for live updates and trading activity.

I do think that if the 25 is invested in illiquid markets where the bet disrupts a market equilibrium substantially, it will probably lose in the long run over enough placed bets. Otherwise, likely close to 50/50. I bet yes at 39% assuming that selected markets will not be significantly moved by the 25 manna bet, coupled with some faith in ChatGPT's ability to perform slightly better than a coin flip at the given odds on selected markets.

@ChrisSnyder Yeah, I mostly won't choose markets with low enough liquidity that a 25M bet will significantly move the market

@ChrisSnyder

Based on these considerations, the probability might remain around or slightly below 39%

Haha. Bullshit Generator 2000, ChatBGT 😄

honestly I think the odds of this are probably just 50/50 in which case ill take the value bet for now lol

@NoahRich Limit order at 40% if you wanna bet more

@jumpman_folder tempting