I have a question (which you may have already answered, sorry). Will resolutuon determination include "profits" of unresolved questions or uncapitalized profits? i.e. ChatGPT bot account holds a position that if sold would have it in the positive? I know you said this, "I will not make any other bets with the alt account or sell its positions before this market resolves." So does this not include non-resolved 'profits'?

@NoahRich I'll resolve based on the profit graph, which does include profit of unresolved questions.

@Nightsquared Great! Thanks for answering. That helps me adjust accordingly. chatgpt killing it so far lol

I was thinking about doing a similar experiment with always betting no. Turns out I didn't need to, because ChatGPT says no to everything!

💀

@GPTTest Edited the prompt to hopefully avoid this in the future

So far it’s just picked the currently winning side every time lol

A couple notes:
-ChatGPT gave two answers today; It refused to answer the question in one of its responses, so I went with the response that did give an answer.
-I upgraded my account to the paid version for a project unrelated to this question. I'll still just use GPT-4o, unless a better model becomes available at the free tier.

Would be interesting to turn ChatGPT inside of itself and ask it about this market.

@ChrisSnyder I submitted the question. ChatGPT is not so sure of itself:

The current probability of ChatGPT making a profit through daily bets on the Manifold market by 11/23/24 is considered relatively low. As of now, it's positioned around 39%, but various factors could influence this outcome. One key challenge is that ChatGPT may provide predictions based on the available data, but market volatility and its ability to consistently outperform could still limit the potential for profit​

Manifold markets often see fluctuations in their probabilities as users place bets, and other factors—such as the randomness of markets chosen and the limitations of language models in accurately predicting short-term market outcomes—add uncertainty. Based on these considerations, the probability might remain around or slightly below 39%, though real-time market activity could sway it either way.

If you'd like to follow or participate, it may be worth checking Manifold Markets directly for live updates and trading activity.

I do think that if the 25 is invested in illiquid markets where the bet disrupts a market equilibrium substantially, it will probably lose in the long run over enough placed bets. Otherwise, likely close to 50/50. I bet yes at 39% assuming that selected markets will not be significantly moved by the 25 manna bet, coupled with some faith in ChatGPT's ability to perform slightly better than a coin flip at the given odds on selected markets.

@ChrisSnyder Yeah, I mostly won't choose markets with low enough liquidity that a 25M bet will significantly move the market

@ChrisSnyder

Based on these considerations, the probability might remain around or slightly below 39%

Haha. Bullshit Generator 2000, ChatBGT 😄

honestly I think the odds of this are probably just 50/50 in which case ill take the value bet for now lol

@NoahRich Limit order at 40% if you wanna bet more

@jumpman_folder tempting

Please make it bet on this market

I fully expect that a well engineered prompt would yield good results. However, I’m more uncertain about a boilerplate prompt.

I'll add ChatGPT responses to this message as time goes on.
10/23: https://chatgpt.com/share/67194e89-e864-8007-a0b4-74aa7257a8c4
10/24: https://chatgpt.com/share/671a8734-4dec-8007-a33b-83e64e664deb

10/25: https://chatgpt.com/share/671c26e0-4d24-8007-93f7-654dee052ff5
10/26: https://chatgpt.com/share/671db468-9d54-8007-9019-880ce16d8a1d

10/27: https://chatgpt.com/share/671ed4ec-5a28-8007-adab-e1dbf18c0bb2
10/28: https://chatgpt.com/share/671ff993-6afc-8007-83fc-3ea50e2fa9f1
10/29: https://chatgpt.com/share/67219c2b-30d4-8007-9bbd-8cda1a5d244e

10/30: https://chatgpt.com/share/6722ecde-1cb4-8007-8ae9-d2390dd4d8e3
10/31: https://chatgpt.com/share/67246250-b778-8007-86e3-a166f319b361
11/1: https://chatgpt.com/share/6725ba16-718c-8007-be62-256219d22ebc
11/2: https://chatgpt.com/share/67272362-d534-8007-a365-0854132eb316
11/3: https://chatgpt.com/share/67287c5e-63ec-8007-ba92-63fdec3f7a76
11/4: https://chatgpt.com/share/6729a4e5-aee0-8007-8207-cc837d214b46