On which days will real-money betting on Manifold be possible for a majority of American adults?
➕
Plus
4
Ṁ1255
2030
97%
November 5th, 2024
89%
January 1st, 2025
86%
March 1st, 2025
77%
June 1st, 2025
68%
August 1st, 2025
55%
October 1st, 2025
52%
January 1st, 2026
48%
July 1st, 2026
45%
January 1st, 2027
39%
November 7th, 2028

This mainly tests if the current sweepstakes model will still be in place on a given date, in which case that date resolves YES. If the sweepstakes model is still nominally in place for a given day, but there are no sweepstakes markets open on that day, that day will resolve NO.

The definition of real-money betting is the same as in https://manifold.markets/jack/will-manifold-launch-real-money-pri

, with the exception that it has to be available to a majority of U.S. residents over the age of 18, based on the population data of states in which real-money betting is allowed.

I will not bet on this market.

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January 1st, 2024
bought Ṁ250 January 1st, 2024 NO

@Nightsquared real money betting didn't exist on manifold at the start of the year. Resolves NO.. presumably that was a typo though, lmk if you need N/A assistance or something like that

@Bayesian Yeah was supposed to be 2025, will just resolve no and replace it

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