Resolution Criteria

The primary runoff election will take place on May 26, 2026. The market resolves YES if Brandon Herrera receives more votes than Tony Gonzales in the Republican primary runoff for Texas' 23rd Congressional District. Results can be verified through the Texas Secretary of State's official election results at https://elections.sos.texas.gov/.

Background

Gonzales defeated Herrera in a 2024 runoff by only a few hundred votes. This time, Gonzales was embroiled in controversy after allegations circulated about an affair between him and his former aide, Regina Santos-Aviles. Herrera, a YouTuber known online as "the AK Guy," challenged Gonzales from the right in each of the last two primaries. He owns a small firearms manufacturing company in San Antonio and has pledged to block gun restrictions and impose strict border security policies. Through early February, the YouTuber had raised $2.3 million between his campaign and joint fundraising committee, allowing him to outspend Gonzales on ads down the homestretch — a rarity for a congressional challenger. Gonzales and Herrera earned 42.5% each in the four-person race in the March 3 primary, triggering the runoff.

Considerations

President Donald Trump has endorsed Gonzales in his primary battle. Republicans are wondering whether Gonzales could lose outright, a possibility raised by an internal poll that Herrera's campaign conducted in the three days immediately after the Express-News report about the affair allegations.

This description was generated by AI.