Will I run a marathon in 2024?
22
161
1k
2025
64%
chance

I have not run a marathon before, but kind of want to try this year.

Resolves to YES if I run a distance of 26.2 miles in a single attempt. Does not have to be at an official race (but if it happens it likely will be).

I will only bet YES and will not sell any positions.

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what is the longest you've run? how many miles did you run last year?

bought Ṁ30 YES

@diadematus ~13 and I have no idea, not a lot... maybe 100-150?

bought Ṁ75 NO

@jcbmrshll based on these figures and your question description, let's just say I'm highly skeptical but would be very impressed if you did ;)

@diadematus this for example is a more bullish profile that I'm still shorting because training and running a full marathon is really hard https://manifold.markets/CrissmanLoomis/will-i-run-the-2023-osaka-marathon