Endorsement recorded here https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_in_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election

So this market is now effectively 'Will Labour be the largest party after the general election'!

And there we have it! https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/28935096/its-time-for-a-change/

Still no Sun endorsement yet!

Related market

https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-the-sun-newspaper-endorse-the

I think this is a really interesting question. My guess is that the Sun will endorse Labour, and Labour will win. It's rare for the Sun to endorse Labour, but they did it in the Blair years and I think they'll do it again, now that (a) the Tories are in a bit of a mess, and (b) Labour have a centrist leader.

@FionDun I think they also try to back the winner, and Labour look strong at the moment.

@Nico Sorry if this is a daft question (I'm still new to Manifold), but I'm having trouble squaring the content of your comment with your bets. It sounds like you're saying that the Sun will back the winner, but if I'm understanding the text next to your name right, you're predicting NO. What am I missing?

(Personally I think this market is really undervalued, but I've rushed in and locked up all my starting credit in other markets so I can't put my mana where my mouth is!)

@FionDun No you’re right, I am predicting NO but my comment suggests YES. It’s because I think UK politics is more polarised than it was in 1997 and the Sun is less likely to switch now than it was then. But I do see the other side of the argument. On balance I think it’s more likely that the Sun stick to their guns and endorse the Conservatives despite the temptation to back the likely winner, and Labour go on to win. I’d give that around 2/3 chance.

I’ll also add that I made the market precisely because I can see both sides and I’m interested to see what other people think!

How will you resolve the question if there is no clear endorsement by the Sun? Will you be the judge of whether their coverage amounts to endorsement?

@WXTJ I’ll use the equivalent Wikipedia page to this one

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_in_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election

@WXTJ In case of no endorsement I think we go N/A

what is the party endorsed by the sun?

@AmmonLam The Sun is a British newspaper. It hasn’t endorsed anyone for the next general election yet. Last time it endorsed the Conservatives.

@Nico lol

@AmmonLam Context is it has a history of calling elections right/claiming to have swung them with its coverage.