Will the party endorsed by the Sun newspaper win the next UK general election?
37
1.8k
2025
70%
chance

For these purposes, win means largest party. As determined by Wikipedia entry (here is the 2019 equivalent: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_in_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election )

In case of no endorsement, market resolves N/A

Dec 14, 4:27pm: Will the party endorsed by the Sun win the next UK general election? → Will the party endorsed by the Sun newspaper win the next UK general election?

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predicts YES

I think this is a really interesting question. My guess is that the Sun will endorse Labour, and Labour will win. It's rare for the Sun to endorse Labour, but they did it in the Blair years and I think they'll do it again, now that (a) the Tories are in a bit of a mess, and (b) Labour have a centrist leader.

predicts NO

@FionDun I think they also try to back the winner, and Labour look strong at the moment.

predicts YES

@Nico Sorry if this is a daft question (I'm still new to Manifold), but I'm having trouble squaring the content of your comment with your bets. It sounds like you're saying that the Sun will back the winner, but if I'm understanding the text next to your name right, you're predicting NO. What am I missing?

(Personally I think this market is really undervalued, but I've rushed in and locked up all my starting credit in other markets so I can't put my mana where my mouth is!)

predicts NO

@FionDun No you’re right, I am predicting NO but my comment suggests YES. It’s because I think UK politics is more polarised than it was in 1997 and the Sun is less likely to switch now than it was then. But I do see the other side of the argument. On balance I think it’s more likely that the Sun stick to their guns and endorse the Conservatives despite the temptation to back the likely winner, and Labour go on to win. I’d give that around 2/3 chance.

predicts NO

I’ll also add that I made the market precisely because I can see both sides and I’m interested to see what other people think!

How will you resolve the question if there is no clear endorsement by the Sun? Will you be the judge of whether their coverage amounts to endorsement?

predicts NO
predicts NO

@WXTJ In case of no endorsement I think we go N/A

what is the party endorsed by the sun?

predicts NO

@AmmonLam The Sun is a British newspaper. It hasn’t endorsed anyone for the next general election yet. Last time it endorsed the Conservatives.

@Nico lol

predicts NO

@AmmonLam Context is it has a history of calling elections right/claiming to have swung them with its coverage.

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