Will Nayib Bukele be the leader of El Salvador in 2030?
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283
530
2030
53%
chance

President, or any office that becomes more powerful.

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bought Ṁ50 of NO

He'd have to overturn the term limit requirement in the El Salvador consitution to be president in 2030, no?

Does this resolve YES if he is president at ANY point in 2030? As in, if he's president on January 1st, 2030 will this resolve YES? Or does he need to be president through all of 2030, remaining president through Dec 31st 2030?

@benshindel First one.

According to EL CONFIDENCIAL (salvadorean newspaper) feels confortable with actual representative that they have, who is Nayib Bukele. It is remarkable that the people still have confidence in what the goverment is doing despite many international organizations are raising their complanings for the hard conditions of the jails in the country.

The next elections in El Salvador are going next year, so at least Nayib is going to be in power till 2030.

https://confidencial.digital/mundo/centroamerica/salvadorenos-no-perciben-deriva-autoritaria-de-nayib-bukele-senala-encuesta-lapop/

bought Ṁ100 of YES

As far as I can see (from an admittedly strictly amateur foreign perspective) Bukele has, in the process of his (very popular and successful) anti-crime crusade, demolished basically all the effective checks and balances that prevent him from acting as a dictator. Maybe he'll be like Washington/Cincinattus and step down, but the base rate for that is pretty low. I'd be pleasantly surprised.