Will Jacinda Ardern be the Prime Minister of New Zealand for all of 2023?
resolved Jan 25

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted NO

Bought no at 84% mmm delicious. I would've bought more if I had the bux

predicted NO
predicted NO

This can resolve now; Chris Hipkins is the Prime Minister of New Zealand.

predicted NO

She has had her final public appearance. Chris Hipkins is to replace her tomorrow.


predicted YES

It’s genuinely surprising this is at 1%, for the time it will take to settle, there is going to be better ways to get a 2% return.

Plus, the risk premium is still there that she doesn’t step down as expected. More reasonably this should be at like 8-10% and then decay over the next two months as it becomes an imminent certainty.

Enjoy waiting for that 1% profit lol

predicted NO

@Gen According to my father, she's a literal dictator so I wouldn't be too sure she'd step down (caveat, my father is consumed with conspiracy theories 😂 )

bought Ṁ25 of YES

@SamuelRichardson Your father sounds smart!! Buy buy buy !!

predicted NO

@Gen Her latest possible day is supposed to be the 7th (in less than 3 weeks) and they're voting on her replacement in two days. I'd be surprised if she was still PM this time next week.

predicted YES

@NcyRocks That’s if you believe her!! This whole thing is just a ploy so she can find out who’s gunning for her job and then have them killed!! Putin101

sold Ṁ59 of YES

@Gen Ok I sold my position, nobody really taking the bait. Small profit at least lol

predicted NO
predicted NO

This shouldn't resolve yet; it should wait until Jacinda actually resigns. (That seems like a sure thing, but it hasn't happened yet, and if there's a big enough controversy around the next leader she miiiight stay on.)

bought Ṁ200 of NO

How am I the only one with NO shares? Labour's well behind in the polls. That's not super predictive this far out, but it's certainly not an advantage!

@NcyRocks Mainly because I needed liquidity for all the markets ending here at year end! I had to dissolve my position, because it was going to take way too long to settle.