Will Gaza be under complete military occupation by Israel during 2023?
resolved Jan 1

No part of the territory left uncontrolled by Israeli forces, in the sense that 'control' is typically applied in these kinds of situations.

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bought Ṁ400 of NO

@NickHeinonen the entire Gaza strip, right? Not just the city of Gaza itself?

@chrisjbillington Yes, the entire Strip

bought Ṁ75 of NO

I'm arbitraging this market with https://manifold.markets/JoaoPedroSantos/will-gaza-be-de-facto-controled-by. Complete military occupation surely implies "de facto control", so this market should be trading at a price below the linked market.

@EgeErdil Your arbitrage worked, but now I wonder if things haven't swung too far in the other direction?? Between this market on "complete military occupation" (24% before I bid it up to 27%) and this other market asking about "de-facto control w/simpler criteria" (was 53% before I bid it down to 44%) is a large gap!

Seems like the large difference in probability might stem from:
- the other question maybe doesn't require "complete" control of all the territory (maybe it's just referring to Gaza city, in the northern half of the Gaza strip?)
- the other question includes other options that aren't "military occupation", like some kind of puppet government which is "de-facto" under the thumb of Israel? But it seems hard for this detail to account for such a large difference in likelihood?

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