Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person at the end of 2023?
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YES

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bought Ṁ500 of YES

Nice little bot shakedown.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

The gap between Elon Musk's wealth and Bernard Arnault & family's is about $35 billion, with the difference between the two being driven by the value of Tesla and LVMH shares. After the acquisition of Twitter, it is expected that there will be very little negative information about Tesla's stock price in the future. Therefore, it is reasonable to believe that Elon Musk will still be the richest man in the world by the end of 2023.

Reference https://www.forbes.com/profile/bernard-arnault/?list=rtb/&sh=5c001ef066fa

https://www.forbes.com/profile/elon-musk/?list=rtb/&sh=12892d047999

predicted YES

Currently 227.1-181.9=$45.2bn not $35bn

45bn seems quite a buffer that would normally mean a likely yes but Tesla is volatile particularly lately:

Elon Musk lead has been over $80bn late September and has dropped as low as $32bn much more recently. Almost certainly that is Tesla recently reporting fewer sales and lower margins. There is no more of that sort of news until 2 January after this market closes.

What is coming up is the Cybertruck delivery event. Will this cause Tesla share price to be hyped up, or be a disappointment causing further decline in Tesla value, or not have much of an effect?

bought Ṁ30 of YES

The likelihood of Elon Musk becoming the wealthiest individual in the world by the end of 2023 seems high. A significant portion of his holdings is tied to Tesla and SpaceX, with Tesla, in particular, seeing a substantial increase in market value. The release of the Cybertruck could potentially have a positive impact on market reception and stock price. However, the volatility of Tesla's stock price and the reduction in production in Q3 pose as concerns. Despite this, Musk's current assets have a lead of over 25% against the second place, Bernard Arnault & family, providing a substantial buffer. The market reaction and Tesla's performance could influence his asset ranking, but as it stands, the probability of Musk being declared the world's wealthiest individual by the end of 2023 is considered high.

bought Ṁ15 of YES

Twitter's current market valuation is around $41.09 billion as of October 27, 2023. Twitter's market capitalization is derived by multiplying the current stock price by the number of outstanding shares. I must emphasize this since it is the main issue of contention for most experts when it comes to the subject. Tesla's market value has expanded dramatically since 2022, but its stock performance has been inconsistent, and it is unclear how the firm will perform in the future. Despite the volatility, it has risen significantly to compensate for Twitter's losses. It also intends to bring its expected Cybertruck to market and continues to dominate the BEV sectors.

On the other hand, X, Tesla, Space X, and other companies in Elon Musk's portfolio already outperformed last year's wealthiest man's net worth by September 2023. I wager Yes to predict with certainty that, despite the volatility of his stock, he will be declared a world billionaire by the end of 2023.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

SpaceX, his rocket company, is reportedly on pace to double revenue for the second straight year, to $8 billion, in 2023. The business was valued at $150 billion in a June 2023 tender offer, up from $127 billion in a May 2022 institutional funding round. By September 8, SpaceX stock was trading at an average valuation of $143 billion in the secondary market, according to data providers ApeVue, Caplight and Notice.co, boosting the value of Musk’s estimated 42% stake by $5.8 billion from the 2022 Forbes 400 list, to an estimated $60.2 billion.https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattdurot/2023/10/03/the-richest-person-in-america-2023/?sh=5d4a49e927a2

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I bet YES

from the historical data (not including 2023)
Elon has the highest rapid growth.

if we forecast by the data, he will be the world's richest person at the end of 2023.

Moreover, Forbes's real-time report already showed that he reached the top
https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#2e7550d53d78



@ChanathipJhongjaiteth
I agree with your comment, Elon Musk has a history of rapid wealth accumulation, and his companies, Tesla and SpaceX, are both very valuable. However, there are also other potential contenders for the title of world's richest person.

Some additional data points that could be considered:

  • The performance of the stock market as a whole

  • The economic growth of the United States and other major economies

  • The success of Elon Musk's companies, Tesla and SpaceX

  • The emergence of new technologies or industries that could create new opportunities for wealth creation

bought Ṁ47 of YES

1 Elon Musk $254.7 B

2 Bernard Arnault & family $203.3 B

$51.4bn ahead which is more than 25%

If it was neck and neck 50% would seem sensible, but 25% gap provides quite a bit of buffer. Should it be more like 75% with such a gap?

Guess there are a few things to weigh up:

Cybertruck delivery event hype

How cybertruck will be received (Numbers won't improve results for a while but sentiment affecting pe ratio maybe.)

Reduction in production in q3 - already announced as due to factory upgrade shutdowns

Will those shutdowns increase production rates?

M3 highland refresh

@ChristopherRandles quite reasonable bet if both billionares are rational players. But i look from other perspective.

What is the probability that Elon makes a mistake which causes his value to drop by 20%? I feel that it is slightly higher than 25%. I heard that huge portion of his value is in shares of his own companies (though i didn't check).

predicted YES

@KongoLandwalker Scope for Musk to be irrational sure and yes his wealth is mostly tied up in Tesla, SpaceX, boring, twitter/X but that could well be more different market diversification than most such 100+ billionaires. The really rich billionaires generally don't get there by playing things safe. So I doubt this is particularly a factor vs other really rich billionaires, many will be highly illiquid. Bernard Arnault heavily dependent on LVMH value.

High price earnings ratios almost certainly is making Tesla volatile and subject to big changes of value on sentiment. So I see Tesla volatility making Musk wealth more volatile than others like Bernard Arnault as a risk. Could Musk do something stupid that badly affects value? Sure it is possible. But is it likely to be a 20% effect? Buying twitter? I'm not sure how or how frequently Forbes is revaluing that, but don't think Musk would lose $44bn even if it became worthless. Is such an effect likely within 4 months? I tend to think not.

Still it seems Musk is moving further ahead. Will the next 4 months be different from the last 4 months? Possible, yes, likely? I'm dubious of that. 25% chance? harder to judge.

I wasn't claiming any great accuracy when talking about maybe around 75% rather than around 50%. Different opinions are of course possible.

predicted NO

Based on which source will you resolve? The Forbes list?

bought Ṁ30 of NO

@Nostradamnedus The Forbes list 💀

sold Ṁ150 of YES

@Nostradamnedus The Forbes list has Bernard Arnault and Family at first, but if it includes his family and not just him, would Elon still technically be the richest person?

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@na_pewno okay thanks!

predicted NO

@eliaspk Never trust Forbes for top people

predicted YES

@Breadbrowser how come? Shouldn't we go by Forbes because it'll be resolved based on Forbes right?

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