Will Israel defeat Hezbollah and start an invasion of Syria this year?
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resolved Feb 19
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YES

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@mods this was resolved no in october, probably should be resolved correctly based on info til the end of the year

@Bayesian You're a mod! Resolve it! Or explain how I should.

@Eliza i don't know if israel defeated hezbollah and started an invasion of syria, the former thing seems like something people would kinda have a position on and more informed people would make a better judgement on? perplexity ai says israel "effectively defeated hezbollah" but it also says hezbollah is still up and running, not like in hiding or wtv

Reports from multiple reputable sources indicate that during 2024 Israel carried out a major military offensive against Hezbollah—severely weakening its leadership (including the killing of its top leader, Hassan Nasrallah) and forcing the group into a ceasefire—and subsequently launched an invasion into Syria. In December 2024, Israeli forces entered the UN-designated buffer zone (and beyond) in Syria, occupying strategic positions such as the Syrian side of Mount Hermon, all justified by Israel as necessary for its security in the wake of the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

However, while Israeli operations significantly degraded Hezbollah’s military capability and leadership, the term “defeat” can be complex in this context because Hezbollah remains a potent force despite its losses. Nonetheless, the overall picture for 2024 is one in which Israel not only forced a cessation of active hostilities by decapitating Hezbollah’s command but also expanded its military presence into Syria.

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I would kinda lean toward YES for that ig

What happened with this market? Israel in fact has done both these things as of this week.

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