Will Humans become extinct in 2300?
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In 2020, Toby Ord estimates existential risk in the next century at "1 in 6" in his book The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. He also estimated a "1 in 10" risk of extinction by unaligned AI within the next century.
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If you randomly, blindly grab ball #10 from a numbered basket. What's the chance the basket has 100.000 balls instead of just 20?
Now note how you're human #117 billion, is humanity really going to be more than 300 billion large, are you really, by pure coincidence that early in the story?
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