Will the official policy of the US State Department be to support Ukraine/Russia peace talks, built around the then-status quo, before the end of 2024?
Will not resolve yes if talks are supported only in the event Russia makes significant concessions from current holdings, unless Russia is publicly agreeable to the idea.
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@NickAllen Resolves as NO. The official policy of the U.S. State Department is to put Ukraine in the best possible position for negotiations by delivering weapons on a large scale. There has not yet been any change regarding the "Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nothing_about_Ukraine_without_Ukraine) principle, and Ukraine is not ready for peace talks based on the status quo.
See also 2023 question:
https://manifold.markets/NickAllen/will-the-us-support-a-negotiated-se?r=Tmlja0FsbGVu