Conditional on at least dating 2 years before getting married, will Austin and Rachel still be married after 5 years?
5
24
110
resolved Jul 1
Resolved
N/A

Scoping out the success chances of a marriage based on duration of courtship. Part of a series. See also 6 month and 1 year questions.

"After 5 years" from the date of marriage. I.e., will they still be together on their 5th wedding anniversary.

Resolves "N/A" if Austin and Rachel do not get married or get married before having dated 2 years.

If they date at least 6 months and then get married, only the highest applicable duration will stay active. For example, if they date 13 months and get married the "at least 1 year" question will remain active, and the 6 month and 2 year questions will both resolve N/A.

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So this only resolves something besides N/A if they postpone their wedding plans by like a year?

@Conflux Although if they get married at, like, 1 year and 10 months I'm going to count this as being in effect. It's fuzzy enough.

bought Ṁ5 of YES

@NickAllen wait what? That's not how I interpreted it at all, I was assuming 2 years exactly

Unless you're including anything which rounds to 2 years, to the nearest whole year?

Since this is a "resolves N/A or in effect" question, not a "yes or no" question I don't feel any need to over-specify it. My immediate response is that 18 months isn't close enough to 2 years, but 22 months is.

predicted YES

@NickAllen True, but this isn't a question where it's difficult to have a well-defined standard - how long counts as 2 years for this market?

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@Conflux Let's do 22+ months. See new edit on the resolution though; only the most applicable market will be kept, so that people don't need to bet the 6+ month accounting for the chance they date several years.