When will an AI system autonomously build and operate a production software platform serving 1,000+ active users? | Manifold

When will an AI system autonomously build and operate a production software platform serving 1,000+ active users?

2

Ṁ225Ṁ42

2027

October 10, 2033

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

40%

Before Dec 2026

54%

Before Apr 2027

50%

Before Oct 2027

50%

Before Jan 2028

50%

Before Dec 2028

50%

Before Dec 2029

50%

Before Dec 2030

57%

Before Dec 2031

59%

Before Dec 2032

Domain-Specific AGI in software engineering: a single AI system takes a novel product spec and autonomously architects, builds, deploys, and operates a production-grade platform (auth, scaling, monitoring, CI/CD, security, database — at least 3 of 6) for 1,000+ active users over 60 days, handling ops autonomously. No human code contributions or debugging. Independently verified.

Full methodology and definitions: https://www.future-shock.ai/research/agi-predictions

Future Shock ensemble prediction: March 2027 (±6 months). Also submitted to Metaculus.

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