How many Americans will die as a result of commercial air travel accidents in 2025?
How many Americans will die as a result of commercial air travel accidents in 2025?
16
1kṀ30562026
62%
Less than 100
30%
100-500
3%
501-1000
3%
1001-10000
1.7%
More than 10000
This applies to all kinds of deadly accidents involving commercial passenger aircraft, including but not limited to crashes. It does not include deaths from crashes of private planes (corporate jets, general aviation).
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fatal_accidents_and_incidents_involving_commercial_aircraft_in_the_United_States
Going by this list, the last year with more than 100 deaths was 2001, and 2025 is currently at 77. Incidents were more common in the 1990s, however.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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