
How many collisions will there be involving commercial aircraft from Feb. 6 through the end of 2025?
10
1kṀ945resolved Jan 1
100%60%
0
12%
1
8%
2
7%
3
7%
4
6%
5 or more
Includes collisions on the ground or in the air involving one or more commercial aircraft. Resolves by the end of 2025 on news reports from at least one of:
• ABC
• CBS
• NBC
• PBS
• NPR
• CNN
• Fox
• MSNBC
• Associated Press
• New York Times
• Washington Examiner
• Wall Street Journal
• New York Post
• USA Today
Update 2025-02-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Criteria:
Only collisions involving verifiably commercial aircraft count.
Incidents where the involved aircraft are not commercial in nature (for example, those highlighted in the referenced tweet) should be excluded from the count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ206 | |
| 2 | Ṁ160 | |
| 3 | Ṁ43 | |
| 4 | Ṁ36 | |
| 5 | Ṁ35 |
Sort by:
(Deleted comment)
These are not commercial aircraft.
https://x.com/bnonews/status/1889127659491283432?s=46&t=UTLUQVQtiXMrPvvihxga3g
People are also trading
Related questions
Catastrophic aviation accidents between Christmas 2025 and February 2026
3.13
Will there be a physical collision between a PLA aircraft and an aircraft of another nation's military before 2027?
52% chance
Will there be a physical collision between a PLA aircraft and an aircraft of another nation's military before 2035?
41% chance
Will there be a physical collision between a PLA aircraft and an aircraft of another nation's military before 2028?
41% chance
Fatal Canadian airliner incident by end of 2027?
20% chance
Will there be a physical collision between a PLA aircraft and an aircraft of another nation's military before 2031?
59% chance
Commercial civilian autonomous flights by EOY 2040?
55% chance