See https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/06/us/politics/trump-very-big-announcement.html
Unless otherwise implied, a topic here only applies to the announcement itself, and not related future policy. Multiple topics can resolve YES at the same time. Some topics are supersets of others, e.g. "Foreign Policy" and "Tariffs."
An invasion of a foreign nation would resolve "Foreign Policy" and "Military" YES. It would also resolve "Tariffs" YES if that invasion caused new tariffs announced at the same time as the invasion.
If by May 20 Trump makes no announcement that is unambiguously the one he referred to on May 6, market settles YES to "Trump makes no announcement by May 20" and NO to everything dependent on him actually making an announcement. (Announcement doesn't need to be made by Trump himself, just by the administration.)
Another nation joining the Abraham Accords would settle "Gaza/Israel conflict" to YES.
Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution criteria for the Gaza/Israel conflict topic:
Any announcement directly involving Israel will cause this topic to resolve to YES.
This includes any announcements concerning the Abraham Accords.
This applies even if the announcement is not directly about the current conflict.
Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Further clarification on the Gaza/Israel conflict topic, specifically regarding announcements concerning Iran:
An announcement that is primarily policy on Iran will resolve this topic to NO if it does not include substantial mention of Israel.
If an announcement concerning Iran includes substantial mention of Israel, it will be considered directly related to Israel and resolve this topic to YES (in line with the 2025-05-07 update stating that any announcement directly involving Israel resolves this topic to YES).
The resolution will be determined based on the announcement itself, not the magnitude of any indirect effects the policy might have on Israel.
Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the relationship between Tariffs and Tax Reform (or a general 'Taxes' topic):
Announcements regarding Tariffs will also be considered relevant for the Tax Reform topic (or a general 'Taxes' topic).
This is because, as confirmed by the creator, the market's rules define taxes to include tariffs.
Update 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated their planned process for resolving the market:
Once the creator is confident in identifying the specific announcement referred to in the market question, they will proceed with the following steps.
A draft resolution will be written.
This draft will then be shared to request for comment before the market is finally resolved.
Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution criteria for the US economy topic:
This topic will resolve to YES if the announcement involves anything that has a significant impact on the US economy.
This interpretation was proposed by user @Odoacre in response to the creator's request for clarification, and the creator agreed to it.
An example discussed and accepted was that an announcement concerning medical costs would qualify if it is deemed to have a significant impact on inflation, thereby impacting the US economy.
Update 2025-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced their intention to resolve the market, identifying the pharmaceutical prices announcement as the likely subject of Trump's "very big announcement."
A draft resolution has been shared, detailing how topics such as Prescription drug and pharmaceutical prices, Medicare, and US Economy are expected to settle based on this identification.
The creator is seeking feedback on this proposed resolution and will not finalize the market resolution for at least two days.
Please refer to the creator's full comment for their detailed reasoning and the complete proposed settlement.
1,000People are also trading
Okay, so, as best I can tell the only at all likely resolutions here are:
No announcement was made
US/China tariff deal
Pharmaceutical prices
Golden Dome? (need more details but very possible)
Given WH didn't publicize the US/China deal much, and Trump specifically said the announcement was "not about trade", it seems fairly clear that it's not the announcement he was referring to.
It looks like the pharmaceutical prices announcement does match the profile quite well:
Largest announcement (behind US/China) made before Middle East trip, and we have no reason to believe Trump delayed the announcement or didn't make the announcement
Heavily promoted by WH social media + described as extremely important (WH: "PRESIDENT TRUMP'S 'MOST IMPORTANT AND IMPACTFUL' TRUTH EVER ISSUED," Trump: "one of the most consequential Executive Orders in our Country’s history")
Not about trade, and positive
Leaked as the 'very big announcement' in question on Politico
So I expect that unless we get new info in the next few days, or I've missed important information, this market will settle to the pharmaceutical prices announcement.
To my understanding, this would settle:
Prescription drug and pharmaceutical prices YES
Medicare YES
US Economy YES (According to @Odoacre's definition)
Trump makes no announcement by May 20 NO
Manifold agrees that it is indeed "very, very big", "as big as it gets", "one of the most important announcements that have been made in many years about a certain subject" etc. TBD
Democrats broadly agree the announcement is positive TBD
{Everything else} NO
I'm publishing this as an update and to check if I'm missing something. I won't resolve the market for at least two days.
@NicholasCharette73b6 But has any newspaper related this announcement, or any other announcement, to the original news?
@NicholasCharette73b6 Okay, yes, the newspapers have linked the two news stories. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-big-announcement-medicare-drug-pricing-plan/?utm_source=chatgpt.com https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/07/trump-sweeping-medicare-drug-price-plan-00334167
@Joshua I agree (and I hold NO shares on basically every option in this market, so I don't think I'm biased)
@NicholasCharette73b6 The Youtube link above is to an announcement Trump made on the 20th. Almost certainly about the Golden Dome if you perceive this to be a/the "big announcement."
If this is not a/the "big announcement," then I concede the point (and my mana).
Additional Kalshi market, if applicable. Notably, everybody trading up to 99% there are implicitly taking the position that an announcement will happen today because they will default to NO if there is no announcement. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpmention/what-will-trump-say#KXTRUMPMENTION-25MAY20
@TheAllMemeingEye That sounds right to me.
So why aren't people selling both top option and no announcement option when they add to over 100%? The cost is less than 100% and at least one has to resolve no?
Is there something we are missing? If creator is unsure whether it is top option or no announcement might both resolve yes? @NicholasCharette73b6 can this be ruled out?
@TheAllMemeingEye now 55% plus 32% so less than 100% so the problem has resolved itself.
Now I think Prescription Drug and Pharmaceutical prices at 55% is too low and no announcement at 32% is still too high but it isn't quite as absurd now.
@TheAllMemeingEye IMO this is now like the "consider third term" market a market about what the market creator will decide. F Trump and his unclear communication style!
@AlexanderTheGreater Trump does, indeed, like ambiguity...
That's the hazard with making markets about him.
@TheAllMemeingEye
> the no announcement option is mutually exclusive with all other options
Yes, that's right.
@Quroe I do (as one of the top Yes holders), and in the Trades I see you've only filled No limit orders
@shankypanky Bug report submitted on Discord.
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1373330247755235399
I see the same exact list no matter which market answer I look at on a particular market.
I see a different list of incorrect traders on other multiple choice markets whenever I look at a market answer's traders.
It seems to be an aggregate of all YES and NO positions across all market answers, which isn't providing any useful information.
I also cleared my Manifold Markets app's cache. It didn't fix it.