See https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/06/us/politics/trump-very-big-announcement.html
Unless otherwise implied, a topic here only applies to the announcement itself, and not related future policy. Multiple topics can resolve YES at the same time. Some topics are supersets of others, e.g. "Foreign Policy" and "Tariffs."
An invasion of a foreign nation would resolve "Foreign Policy" and "Military" YES. It would also resolve "Tariffs" YES if that invasion caused new tariffs announced at the same time as the invasion.
If by May 20 Trump makes no announcement that is unambiguously the one he referred to on May 6, market settles YES to "Trump makes no announcement by May 20" and NO to everything dependent on him actually making an announcement. (Announcement doesn't need to be made by Trump himself, just by the administration.)
Another nation joining the Abraham Accords would settle "Gaza/Israel conflict" to YES.
Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution criteria for the Gaza/Israel conflict topic:
Any announcement directly involving Israel will cause this topic to resolve to YES.
This includes any announcements concerning the Abraham Accords.
This applies even if the announcement is not directly about the current conflict.
Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Further clarification on the Gaza/Israel conflict topic, specifically regarding announcements concerning Iran:
An announcement that is primarily policy on Iran will resolve this topic to NO if it does not include substantial mention of Israel.
If an announcement concerning Iran includes substantial mention of Israel, it will be considered directly related to Israel and resolve this topic to YES (in line with the 2025-05-07 update stating that any announcement directly involving Israel resolves this topic to YES).
The resolution will be determined based on the announcement itself, not the magnitude of any indirect effects the policy might have on Israel.
Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the relationship between Tariffs and Tax Reform (or a general 'Taxes' topic):
Announcements regarding Tariffs will also be considered relevant for the Tax Reform topic (or a general 'Taxes' topic).
This is because, as confirmed by the creator, the market's rules define taxes to include tariffs.
1,000People are also trading
@Endothermia Can confirm he did say it's not about trade - I even already mentioned it here. But I guess the market doesn't trust him? Or perhaps it expects tariffs to be announced even if they're not the core focus, which would resolve "Tariffs" YES. See the market description:
> An invasion of a foreign nation would resolve "Foreign Policy" and "Military" YES. It would also resolve "Tariffs" YES if that invasion caused new tariffs announced at the same time as the invasion.
Wait, does tariffs count as a subset of tax reform, or is it separate? Tariffs are a type of tax, right?
@TheAllMemeingEye I originally intended that to be only domestic, but had an oversight - according to the stated rules taxes include tariffs. Oops, you are correct.
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer made an answer for Iran specifically! Will resolve both "Iran" and "Gaza/Israel" YES if it's some sort of Israel-Iran deal.
@TheAllMemeingEye in Trump voice: people are saying it's a big announcement, he's not saying that, people are saying that...
@MarySmith I didn't specifically say that they were his claims, but they are in the first couple paragraphs of the article in the description
President Trump repeatedly talked up a future announcement, “one of the most important announcements that have been made in many years about a certain subject,” during an Oval Office meeting on Tuesday with Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada.
He never said what he could be talking about, or what “very important” subject he is referring to, only suggesting it would be made before he leaves for a trip to the Middle East next week. But even the timing of the big announcement wandered, with Mr. Trump saying it “will be made either Thursday or Friday or Monday.”
“We will have a very, very big announcement to make. Like as big as it gets. And I won’t tell you on what,” Mr. Trump said, before adding “it is really, really positive.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/06/us/politics/trump-very-big-announcement.html
@TheAllMemeingEye LOL I was making a joke but he was saying that after all hahaha☺ Very Trump manor of speaking of course
Barak Ravid - the best middle east journo
Scoop: Trump envoy Witkoff to brief UN Security Council today on Gaza aid plan.
https://www.axios.com/2025/05/07/witkoff-brief-un-security-council-gaza
The president on Tuesday teased a “very big announcement” within the next week that one of the people familiar characterized as a reference to the drug pricing proposal. The other two did not know whether it was the big announcement but confirmed the drug price plan was likely to be announced in the next week.
--Politico
A “very, very big announcement” US President Donald Trump plans to make during his Middle East trip next week will likely be about an international aid mechanism for the Gaza Strip, a foreign diplomat tells The Times of Israel.
-- Times of Israel
@AlexanderTheGreater Yes, as I specified in my description anything directly involving Israel, incl. Abraham Accords, would settle YES to Israel/Gaza, even if it’s not directly about the current conflict. It’s a bit unfortunate that I decided on this name/resolution criteria combination.
@yaakovgrunsfeld If directly related to Israel, yes. If it’s just policy on Iran without substantial mention of Israel, no. This will be resolved based on the announcement itself, not the magnitude of the policy’s effects on Israel.