Is Trump's announcement "very, very big", "as big as it gets", "one of the most important in many years about [topic]"?
Strong yes
Weak yes
Neutral / unsure
Weak no
Strong no
Lizardman
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Resolution poll for the option

Manifold agrees that it is indeed "very, very big", "as big as it gets", "one of the most important announcements that have been made in many years about a certain subject" etc.

in this market

I'm currently thinking perhaps a weak yes/no should add 0.5 points for that side and a strong yes/no should add 1 whole point.

Relevant context:


https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/06/us/politics/trump-very-big-announcement.html

President Trump repeatedly talked up a future announcement, “one of the most important announcements that have been made in many years about a certain subject,” during an Oval Office meeting on Tuesday with Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada.

He never said what he could be talking about, or what “very important” subject he is referring to, only suggesting it would be made before he leaves for a trip to the Middle East next week. But even the timing of the big announcement wandered, with Mr. Trump saying it “will be made either Thursday or Friday or Monday.”

“We will have a very, very big announcement to make. Like as big as it gets. And I won’t tell you on what,” Mr. Trump said, before adding “it is really, really positive.”

https://trumpstruth.org/statuses/31047

https://trumpstruth.org/statuses/31048

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Kinda surprised strong no is leading so much, but I shall respect the people's decision

By the meaning of the terms in the question itself—“very, very big,” “as big as it gets,” and “one of the most important announcements in many years about a certain subject”—Trump’s May 2025 pharmaceutical pricing announcement has to qualify. The proposal to tie U.S. drug prices to the lowest prices paid internationally is without precedent in American pharmaceutical policy. No comparable announcement in "many years" has introduced a more sweeping, immediate, and disruptive shift to how drug prices are determined. This makes the announcement, by definition, “very, very big,” given its unprecedented scope, sharp break from the status quo, and potentially massive economic consequences. Agreement or disagreement with the policy itself is irrelevant; what matters is the objective magnitude of the proposal. When an announcement introduces the most dramatic change in decades ("many years") to a major public issue—like drug pricing, where Americans routinely pay 3–10 times more for essential medications like insulin than citizens of Canada or Germany—it necessarily ranks as “one of the most important announcements in many years about that subject.”

It makes more sense to me to argue the semantics and interpretation of the question itself than the merits, demerits, or reaction to the announcement, since investors traded on a description. At the very least, if a definitive standard or definition cannot be agreed upon due to the subjective nature of the terms involved, the ambiguity of the question warrants that traders be refunded their investment with no gain or loss.

My question for those voting 'weak No' or below on here: what announcements concerning pharmaceuticals, medicare, drug prices, etc. would you consider larger within many years?

I don't know so much about the topic but my only immediate answer would be covid-19 vaccine deployment?

tangentially, roe v wade being overturned? but unsure if this fits neatly bevause it's a medical related matter but not really related to drugs or medicine or healthcare costs

@No_uh Affordable care act (either introduction or repeal)...

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer I think passing of fhe affordable care act is a good one! Not repeal just because it hasn't gone anywhere yet, but it's also been 15 years since it was passed. Does this not mean a long enough time for many people and 'many years'? I feel a bit mixed on that.

@No_uh I voted No because of the reaction. It was an executive order that fell on deaf ears, was soon forgotten by the media, and was hardly connected with “the announcement of the announcement.”

@Emanuele1000 I think that's fair, too

(edit: accidentally posted too fast)

how big of an announcement can it be, even if it has sweeping changes, if nobody bats an eye when it's made? i would probably argue the other way, but I think the argument is a fair one!

@No_uh if it's about healthcare, introduce a real, comprehensive reform package. Definitely not just another executive order which introduce vague price controls. He didn't even have the actual details! Are there any now? I waste enormous amount of time following policy stuff and if I can't tell you, I suspect 80% of the public can't either

@AlexanderTheGreater

I waste enormous amount of time following policy stuff

I hereby appoint you my go-to guy to ask about how US gov works haha

@TheAllMemeingEye sorry, I follow policy (and especially econ policy) much, much more than politics.

reposted

The yugest, biggliest, most BEAUTIFUL announcement, maybe EVER, believe me, with the POSSIBLE exception of Abraham Lincoln

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