Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to whichever outcome occurs first in 2026:
Invokes the Insurrection Act: Trump formally invokes the Insurrection Act (as of January 15, 2026, he has suggested it might be used but has not invoked the law yet). Resolution requires an official presidential proclamation invoking the act under 10 U.S.C. § 254.
Acquires or invades Greenland: Trump acquires or invades Greenland. This includes any formal acquisition (purchase, treaty, or annexation) or military action resulting in U.S. control of the territory.
Neither of these happen in 2026: If neither action occurs by December 31, 2026, this option resolves yes.
If multiple events occur on the same date, the market resolves N/A. Resolution will be determined by official U.S. government announcements, executive orders, and credible news reporting.
Background
Trump has openly mulled use of the Insurrection Act to deploy troops into Democratic-led cities, and on the first day of his second term suggested in an executive order that the Insurrection Act might be used to control the southern border, but has not invoked the law yet. Since President Thomas Jefferson signed it into law in 1807, the Insurrection Act has been invoked only about 30 times, with the last instance over three decades ago during the 1992 Los Angeles riots.
Since taking office in January 2025, Trump has repeatedly said he wants to annex Greenland "very badly," with a range of options on the table including military attack, and has threatened that the United States is "going to do something [there] whether they like it or not". Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers that Trump would prefer to buy Greenland rather than invade it. Nearly 85 percent of Greenland's population rejects the idea of U.S. acquisition, according to a 2025 poll.
Considerations
Federal officials have talked Trump out of invoking the Insurrection Act on previous occasions during his second term. Greenlandic and Danish authorities have publicly asserted Greenland's right to self-determination and stated that Greenland is "not for sale," with most Greenlanders opposing an American takeover. NATO countries would "of course" have to defend Greenland against the U.S. if necessary under Article 5.
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