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MANIFOLD
Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?
82
Ṁ1kṀ12k
2030
75%
chance
6

It resolves to N/A if both are alive on the closing date or if both die within 24 hours of each other.

If one of them is missing or otherwise presumed dead for more then 6 months, we assume they died at the date of their disappearance (until then they are presumed alive).

Market context
Politics
US Politics
Trump
Joe Biden
2024 US Presidential Election
Biology
Aging
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WHY WOULD YOU RESOLVE TO N/A?? THIS IS HORRIBLE, PROTESTING AGAINST THE N/As.

bought Ṁ7 NO

Arb

https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/who-will-outlive-joe-biden-or-donal?r=TG9nYW5PbHNvbg

According to actuarial tables, the odds of dying in a given year increases by roughly 50% as you age by 4. Thus, the fair price should be about 1.5/(1+0.5) = 60%.

@riverwalk3 What happens if you include BMI?

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